this country is treated like a poisonous well, that can be stirred, overfilled, added venoms and chemicals to produce more potent terrorist-mutants that would spill outside
The war for Afghan never stops
Some group of power could manage to consolidate control, covnince local population to be on their side and cooperate in rooting out anti-establishment factions, while creating a strong border and control of cargo and people's movement to prevent any outside group infiltrating
after US invaded, the colaborator government force actualy could do that, not all collaborator governments collapse. But the Karzai and Ghani regimes were really corrupt and incompetent. Now T-ban also can't establish full control, with some splintering, CIA-terrorist puppet groups, pakistani and iranian influence, ex-government from tajikistan doing their shenanigans.
I don't think you grasp the true issue why this won't work: literally on every side, you have same groups living on both sides of the border. A "strong border" is not something you can just declare one day and it will be obeyed by the local population ("Convince local population"? Lol); any group of power that attempts that will be hated by everyone.
And the only groups that don't live across the border are Hazaras in the centre, which, lol, were decimated/genocided just when empires delimited Afghanistan and designated it the deathmatch zone, back in ~1890, what a coincidence.
>T is considered a terrorist org.
This might change in the near future. If anyone wants to deal in Afghanistand he has to deal with the T. If Big P in the K wants something from Afghanistan, liek resources (which needs investments in Afghanistan) he has to deal with the T too. Which means they have to be taken down from the list.
i've read some guy who is like the fan of the old M-word from the last century and he is not a big fan of T-word. So he is saying, that there is a division in T, between those who want to go with the West, and those who want to go with R or C , while both also could be under the big influence of P and constant paranoia of IS-K
So if the group that wants to have ties with the West wins in A, then T will stay on the terror list.
If there is more than one people then it's always a division. Yeah, if West's favorite gains power then surely T will stay on the list, but how likely is that? It sounds like that pipedream about those dudes in NE Afghanistan who will surely beat the T, they were hyped as great resistance and then in the end they did not. Now we don't hear anything about them.
Most of those Afghanis who favored West left. Partially because they were imported by America, since there wasn't any real support for them there.
I think T remains for now, and they started to act on the international scene, visiting some UN jamboree and whatnot tool, so they try to create an international acceptance. Which will succeed to some degree but there will be a hard stop, due to American influence.
> those dudes in NE Afghanistan
>Now we don't hear anything about them.
If we don't hear about them, that doesn't mean they are gone. You know, Afghanistan regime under Americans even had its own CIA type agency called National Directorate for Security. They had people working in close connection with Americans, sharing expirience and all. You think people like that simply disappear? They are in hiding in Afg, and in the Western countries.
Look at those Vietnamese runaways who still live in USA and plan return, they still exist, and the Americans still exist who think its not right that they left. After USSR withdrew from Afgan, we had thsoe residual pains in Soviet people - nostalgia for this war. And Americans had this war even longer, there are a lot of guys who would want to return. I saw the latest episode of the Boys, the guy there is speaking with the ghost of the friend he lost in Panjshir valley.
It may even fucking happen that Americans and their lapdogs return - you know it was Biden who withdrew, but Trump said he wouldnt withdraw, he was just dangling deal about withdrawing in front of T just to entrench and prolong status quo, he said it in one interview that if he would have won in 2020, he wouldn't withdrew forces despite his agreement. So i think if Trump wins and puts in office some radical general who has Panjshir valley flashbacks - they might even go back, they might re-activate those old cells, find the old assets and stage the resistance and then support it with American boots.
I did not say nor imply they disappeared. They are just irrelevant.
Many more thing needed for the US to go back there than just a nostalgic general, and both Russia and China will do something about integrating Afghanistan into Central Asia. Perhaps even India. All of em will travel around, smile, shake hands and invest. Invest into mining resources, or perhaps into power plants. Perhaps they'll buy the Panjshir rebels too.
In the foreseeable future Afghanistan is just too far for the US, they lost the foothold, perhaps they lost it in Pakistan too, and nothing is nearby to build an intermediary base, as a springboard into Afghanistan.
no one is going to integrate t into anything, they are not even fully in control
and americans haven't lost pakistan, don't be ridiculous. they helped sharif clan to oust khan from power, they have as much influence on pakistan if not more than china, even if they are far away. if pakistan can trade something for helping americans into afghanistan again, they will do it in a heartbeat. they may trade opening skies for american planes in exchange for IMF bail out. Maybe even Russia and China would be happy with americans returning to afghanistan, because its atleast going to be they on the line, and atleast it will be more stable. whatver happens there now is unknown. viruses can mutate and become more contagious and more deadly, but terrorist organisations are the same. afghanistan is now just a petry dish where shit is brewing and no one knows what will come out of it.
Modern day Taliban isn't the same of 20+ years ago, they have now friendly relations with many of their former enemies (Iran, Russia, China) because their former enemies are now also enemies of the US and you know enemy of enemy is my friend...Taliban 20+ years ago was isolated with everyone against it and they had no modern weapons too, now they have modern NATO weapons they got from US military which forgot to pick up when withdrawing and also Russian and Iranian weapons. I doubt it very much that US will invade Afghanistan again. They will eventuatlly accept the new Afghan government just like they eventually accepted Vietnam, China or even North Korea or also the Democratic Kampuchea at its time.
If US invades, it might fuel the rise for ISIS-K in Afghanistan as the Taliban is the only thing fighting the advance of ISIS in Afghanistan right now since the Panjshir rebels have died out. Afghanistan is now just radical islamists vs even more radical islamists. So it would be a stupid move to attack the Taliban when it is the only thing stopping the ISIS from taking over Afghanistan and ISIS is worse than Taliban for americans since those guys are actually aggressive and want to wage a war of expansion in Central Asia to create a Caliphate and do terror attacks in the West. I don't think the US would want that right?
