gas all pedos
Knock Knock Edition
I think it matters in attrition. I think the Ukrainians are hoping that the Russians will break so that they can close off Crimea, so I see the gains more like putting strain on a metal bar. It only matters if you can apply enough pressure to break it, because if not it springs back to its original shape.
Russia has lost the initiative. In the last month, they have hardly done anything Ukraine had to react to. They're still a threat at the frontline, but Ukrainians manage to keep that controled and advance themselves little by little. Russian terrorbombing is a problem, but it doesn't seem to achieve anything. The Russians stopping the grain deal seemed worrying, but Ukraine seems to adapt well to another phase of naval warfare and managed to damage Russian ships.
I agree that Ukraine is fucked if Western support stops, but it doesn't seem like it. Additional tanks and IFVs are still schedules to arrive, ammo resupplies are steady and production is being scaled up. Abrams will come soon and F-16 training is starting, even though there are problems. Germany will most likely provide Taurus, too. Nothing of that is a game-changer, but it means Ukraine isn't running out of weapons and gains capabilities little by little.
Problem: The delivery of weapons is slow and takes baby steps. This is not a threatening scenario to the Russians, so they think they can prevail in a long war.
Worrying is also reports about China and Iran providing Russia with stuff. If they're not running out of stuff after all, we might have a real problem. But I'm not sure how much of that is actually happening.
In conclusion: My gut feeling is basically a reversal of pic rel.
If nothing game-changing happens, Ukraine will advance village by village until either a breakthrough occurs and the can march to the Azov sea and cut off the landbridge to Crimea physically, or they manage to narrow the bridge so that they can comfortably take Russian logistics under constant fire. Then a new phase starts where the Russians have to react in a way to turn this into their favour again (idk how), or they have to think about abandoning Crimea.
...and then it gets really interesting.
There's been more strikes on supply lines and stockpiles lately.
My gut feeling tells me that, after they have thoroughly tested out the defense lines, the move is to starve Russians of ammunition and then push through.
My gut feeling also tells me that they should long be in this phase of assault already, though.
Funny how Georgia now is more rich, prosperous and stable than Ukraine is. Turns out loosing to Russia can be benefitial, they lost a war, Russia didn't occupy their capital and they now have a very rich still independent country.
Meanwhile Ukraine is willing to prolong it, each year losing its workers, talent, infrastructure and money on useless struggle and waste years of development that otherwise could have been used for increasing the quality of life for its population. And what are they fighting for? Lands where live people who hate Ukrainian government in Donetsk and Crimea.
Ukraine is very genious country i think, genius's moves all the way.
>took a good part of their clay?
Georgians never had control over those territories, they were always de-facto independent stemming from conflict that was there from the 90s, and none of your in the West gave a fuck about it untill 2008. You probably never knew that country of Georgia even existed or had 2 regions that were totally independent, without paying taxes to the capital and without allowing police and millitary of central government to access those regions.
And the whole conflict started because one mentally ill person named Saakashvilli decided to end their de-facto independence with millitary action, only prompting those regions to become fully independent now. And they are not part of Russia. Its been 15 years, and Russia did not declare those territories as our own, Abkhazia and South Ossetia are independent countries of their own.
Go and read what happened to this retard Saaka and you will see he is totally crazy, we did the right thing for defending those regions from this shizo
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikheil_Saakashvili
Both abkhazia and south ossetia are only recogniced by five other countries. The rest of the world considers them to be georgian territory. Both have the ruble as currency. Poccner has been issuing akhazian passports since before the 2008 war.
It's pretty obvious, that this is a land grab.
Saakashvili seems to be an asshole.
>Minister: Germany plans $5.5 billion in annual military aid for Ukraine until 2027
>The decision still needs to be approved by the German Parliament, Lindner said during a joint press conference with Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko in Kyiv.
Get ready for a long war. The other day I heard somewhere that Poccners are telling their soldiers to expect fighting until 2026. But if they're still thinking Wect will grow tired of supporting Ukraine, they're wrong.
If we wanted to landgrab them, why didn't we grab them? Like with Crimea or DNR or LNR. It would have been easy to start a refferendum there. Nah, we don't need those regions, they were independent before 2008 from central Georgian government, and after 2008 they continue to be independent from Georgian government, only now de-jure
And again - Georgia is fine with that, noone imposing a puppet government on Georgia, they can live however they like and develop in piece. They live better than Ukraine now. Ukraine could have had the same future, they can just negotiate, end war early, live in piece.
I give you analogy - imagine there are twin brothers. But at some point one brother does something stupid and gets in jail , where he is working hard spine breaking labour in the cold, while his twin free brother living perfectly fine on the freedom and even eats for two, because parents feed him more food, because that food is not being eaten by his brother. Fre brother even starts lifting weights and going to the gym. After 5 years that convicted brother goes free and they meet - the free brother is strong and healthy, while convicted brother is crooked and ill. Free brother was eating and developing, while convicted brother was withering in jail. What does this analogy demonstrate? It demonstrates the "lost development time" in comparison. The convicted brother could have been developing same as his free brother, but he lost that time in jail.
Ukraine now basically losing its development time in this war, same as this convicted brother. Any piece with Russia would give them respite and ability to grow healthy and strong economy, but they refuse it, thingking they can win. They are like that convicted brother who is rotting in jail, losing his development time, and even prolonging their time in jail, while Georgian government chose to live in piece and develops nicely. You know Georgian government also could have said - NO PIECE WITH RUSSIA UNTILL ABKHAZIA AND SOUTH OSSETIA ARE OURS!!! WE ARE GOING TO FIGHT TO THE LAST GEORGIAN, HOWEVER IT TAKES, NO MATTER IF IT TAKES FOREVER!!
And where would Georgia be now, if they took this position? Certainly not in the position of a peacefull country with many alive people and more rich than Ukraine.
>dozens of Russian defense plants are undergoing bankruptcy proceedings or have claims for bankruptcy recognition. Some have received contracts to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and are still operating, while others have turned to selling their property.
https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2023/08/07/why-dozens-of-russian-enterprises-are-bankrupt-or-heading-that-way/
Simply not true. South Ossetia didn't sent anyone except volunteer batalions. Caucasoids are very warlike people - whether its Chechens, Dagistani, or Ossetians, so they have batalions of ex-soldiers with previous millitary expirience who volunteered to participate in special millitary operation, along Russian troops. But their number is not very significant.
But some of them are. Like Equador. The country you heard on the news probably, that has recently been center of violence with polical murders? Are they independent or just US puppet?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_of_Ecuador
Or el Salvador.
Or North Cyprus. Like Europe has no problem with Turkish puppet state on the island of Cyprus that uses Turkish lira, its not even in the news any often, no one condemns or sanctions Turkey for it. Everyone just keeps their mouth shut about it, trying to not stir trouble in the pot.
And well, i can also just say, Russian rouble is INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY.
> North Cyprus
TRNC is recognised by literally noone (except Turkey itself), nobody considers its independent. As for sanctions, it's under under almost complete economic and transport embargo. A lot of nations condemned Turkish invasion itself and imposed different kinds of sanctions back then but it happened several decades ago so of course it's all lifed now. And EU still has problems with it, at least one of the EU countries called Cyprus is quite vocal about it.
By the way, euro is widely accepted in Northern Cyprus as well.
Ukraine need based chads like YOU and its paying A LOT OF MONEY (up to 3K USD)!
You people are losing precious time with those dumb memes nobody will see, you need to apply TODAY! Stupid commies need to get their teeth kicked in and you'll be getting NATO training that you will keep ALL YOUR LIFE, also, you might be able to buy a house and a beautiful ukranian pedomom wife with those buttloads of money you will be making by fighting stupid russian tards in 50 year old soviet gear with your state of the art javelins and sometimes even banned weaponry, well outside of the geneva conventions.
WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR!?!
https://visitukraine.today/blog/1797/how-to-join-the-international-legion-of-defense-of-ukraine-detailed-instructions-for-foreigners
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-732217
>you'll be getting NATO training
thats the most funny part. Because it all breaks by a simple question "and what if not?" What if you go and get the most basic bitch training by soviet standard? what if you don't get paid or there is some arrangement where you get money only after a time or undefined time? what if they don't even give you access to your bank account and money get sent allegedly to some Ukrainian bank account, but you can't even check because they take away your phones claiming it necessary for OPSEC? what if you don't get any freedom to fuck ukrainian chicks and assigned into barracks where they don't allow you to leave? And if you try to leave, some big fat Ukrainian seargant who is larger than you, kicks your teeth in and treats you like slave who has to stay in the slave-house? What if you don't get modern equipment and get yourself pushed inside 50year old MTLB vehicle?
They weren't doing much before, now their families get a paycheck when they die. Also they're almost 10 times less likely to die than the other side. Capitalism is a bitch, ain't it?
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-war-already-with-up-354000-casualties-likely-drag-us-documents-2023-04-12/
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/07/12/a-new-study-finds-that-47000-russian-combatants-have-died-in-ukraine
>here's your counter-offensive
>you thought you have high chances for survival
>but you didn't want run away from the country in woman's dress
>mother didn't had enough money for a bribe
>father's old contacts didn't help
>you tried to hide
>but they need meat
>because they pity the Leopards
>they pity their own children
>but not you
>now you have the one last chance to survive
I worry 'cuz corrupt ukronazis are selling those supposedly stashed weapons to criminals right next door to me.
Why do ukranians want to make enemies of México? NATO is making you do the awful thing, undercover azob guy?
https://www.larazon.es/internacional/armas-entregadas-estados-unidos-ucrania-manos-carteles-droga-mexicanos_20230328642326a397e6800001d56a38.html
https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/2023/06/02/ucrania-envia-armas-a-carteles-mexicanos-en-tamaulipas-advierte-embajada-de-rusia/
That must be why the EU felt the need for the moldovan hub.
But hey, it makes a lot of sense! World's second arms dealer surely is scrapping some war trophies, instead of reverse engineering them. I'm gonna believe your sourceless accusation 100% /s
https://kyivindependent.com/eu-creates-hub-in-moldova-to-fight-illegal-arms-smuggling-human-trafficking-from-ukraine/
Do you even know what the word smuggling means? It's not government or arms manufacturers who do that, it's common people who seize the opportunity to get richer. The pepsi truck driver has a mind of his own, if he doesn't really care about his company you could easily imagine him selling picked up coke as a side job.
I noticed you always have this weird bias like you believe any country is a single person, I wonder where it came from...
>IDS HABBENIN
The estonian protectorate of NATOnistan makes a drone attack, denies accusations on the VERY obvious NATO attack on RUSSIA.
Its over, bros, WWIII WILL break out. Russian aren't as dumb as to believe that drone came from Ukraine. You'll need to be lobotomized to swallow that stupid lie. Burguers/estonian lied, nukes will fly, people will die.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-pskov-airport-strike-not-estonia-nato-member-says-1823464
