Polar Silk RoadBernd 2022-01-22 00:03:38 ⋅ 1y No. 133007
Russia soon stronk? How significant is a new trade route like this? Will this have any geopolitical implications considering balance of power? Route from China to Rotterdam for example goes down from 48 hours -> 19 hours (says in linked video), a huge reduction. Any Russian posters here know about the subject? https://risingtidefoundation.net/2019/10/17/india-and-other-asian-nations-join-the-polar-silk-road/ (don't know how reliable source, just found it on google) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvy9usF7ohE
Bernd 2022-01-22 00:35:10 ⋅ 1y No. 133008
A quick check of the linked website shows no technical data (eg. which kinds of ships would be able to pass) , therefore I find that any speculation regarding the actual importance of this are moot. Thank you for for providing impetus for serious discussion.
Bernd 2022-01-22 00:46:11 ⋅ 1y No. 133011
>>133007 it's gonna be open for a month a year max and it doesn't look that much shorter, large part of those 48 hours have to be congestion issues (malacca, aden, suez, gibraltar) and rerouting will only move the congestion to other parts (the entire bering strait to novaya zemlya being a bottleneck really, and one that is constantly changing with weather) >Will this have any geopolitical implications considering balance of power? yes because this takes away indonesia's geopolitical advantage they haven't exploited yet but I see them possibly doing so by late 21st century
Bernd 2022-01-22 00:46:44 ⋅ 1y No. 133012
>>133008 Serious discussion is exactly what I am looking for about the subject, I just read about it (I guess I heard about it earlier but forgot about it) and it sparked my interest. The article was something I quickly found on google while scrambling this thread together. Another thing; when trying to paste text with Ctrl+V something with Opera GX here it will end up posting the post immediately.
Bernd 2022-01-22 00:53:50 ⋅ 1y No. 133014
>>133011 Interesting point of view, do you mean it will be open for a short while because of the climate in the area or what is the reasoning for it to be closed down? In the video they talk about the area melting and making it possible for ships to move without icebreakers tagging along. >indonesian geopolitical advantage I am not aware of this, interesting. What I was thinking about is that if this would cause a significant change to the global trade routes and challenge some of the current winners, since this would open up new routes for example for both China and Russia to Europe. And if the route is shorter, it should lower shipping costs according to my logic. A broad subject that I am not very familiar with. Here is another link of the subject for interest: https://dailybrief.oxan.com/Analysis/DB238508/Polar-Silk-Road-will-reshape-trade-and-geopolitics
Bernd 2022-01-22 00:57:39 ⋅ 1y No. 133015
>>133014 >In the video they talk about the area melting and making it possible for ships to move without icebreakers tagging along. I didn't watch the video but you need to consider that at this point, the passage is transversible for a short while on years with lowest ice extent. And every winter it regrows all the way to Kola, and down through the Bering strait on other side. And then you also have floating ice which spreads way way further than the nominal "sea ice extent" that can fuck you up.
Bernd 2022-01-22 01:04:05 ⋅ 1y No. 133016
>>133014 Regarding Indonesia; Indonesia has a crazy strong position, massive growth potential, and isn't stagnating unlike most comparable countries (e.g. Brazil). Plus, they're on the equator, that's the best position for launching shit into space. They're in shape good enough that they could project a new capital somewhere in Borneo. And then there's massive mineral wealth they can get from Papua. Which is already getting quite nasty, with big mining moving in and natives making a fuss about it. But most importantly, Malays have been a trade superpower before; there's also a Chinese diaspora that might come in play with taking over and moving stuff out of China in the future possibly, and their location is right on the main global shipping route. If they can start homegrowing their elite (or perhaps, if their growing power starts to get Singapore gravitating their way, and they just de facto take over institutions already there), I can see them as a potential future superpower.
Bernd 2022-01-22 08:07:26 ⋅ 1y No. 133033
Russia has been fortifying their arctic regions with new military tech, while our military has been advancing itself with progressive rights and being inclusive. If Russia dares to fight us, it will must face the consequences of involuntarily becoming a pidor invasion.
Bernd 2022-06-10 11:56:15 ⋅ 8mn No. 166727
>>133016 >They're in shape good enough that they could project a new capital somewhere in Borneo. This is only happening because Jakarta is sinking and they want to be less centralised on Java.
Bernd 2022-06-30 13:36:55 ⋅ 7mn No. 188950
i can't imagine how tough and pointless its going to be to fight for Northern arctic islands in future wars Tropical islands i get it, sometimes when there is no fighting you can just chill and enjoy the weather, the beach. But in the Arctic its fucked up. They don't even need to kill you per se, the enemy can just bomb the building you are staying in and destroy the heater, make few holes in the walls and then you are done for. If enemy would just blockade water ways and you will get no supply - you can just be forgotten and die by freezing to death.