As promised:
... So in 2018 a shitty Tigray leader gets replaced by Abiy. He's a cool kid ("cool" as in "fitting" - translator's note) - a son of Oromo father and Amhara mother, a Protestant himself - so as a result he's not connected too strong with any of the major factions (Oromo are Muslims (non-radical), Amhara are Orthodox Christians for the most part). And his policy is pretty cool - to change Ethiopia and break out from the all the fucked up shit (he's talking about the social situation here - t.n.) and corrupt dealings.
So, his goals were:
- peace and mutual benefits with the neighboring countries (and he achieved that and got a Nobel prize for ending war with Eritrea)
- economic reforms (industrialization, flirting with China without becoming its bitch, a dam on a Nile's tributary, a general improvement their whole shitty economic system) in which he made some good progress
- a religious peace in which he achieved success
- a military reform and in particular disbandment of local militias (de facto private armies of local ethnic cliques - just like Tigrays and their TPLF)
- changing Ethiopia from a fucked up ethnofederation into a regular federation with civic nationalism
The last point means - let's take a local example - that for example in Russian Federation all the citizens are Russians ("rossiane", "citizens of Russia"; as opposed to "russkie" i.e. ethic Russians - t.n.), and the specific ethnicity doesn't matter much (only on a local level, like Tatar language for Tatarstan). Or like in USA were everyone are Americans first and foremost. Or in Switzerland were the Swiss civic identity is more important than being a French, German, Italian etc. Or even among the khokhols, were everyone is a Ukrainian despite the language and this is the default position of the majority (and this example is specifically chosen to show a non-ideal, yet working example). I.e. the civic identity matters, not the ethnicity. And Abiy wanted that in Ethiopia everyone were Ethiopians. Without infringements and violence. And this is the fucking right way.
But that would mean that all the "X liberation fronts" would loose their power - together with their corrupted elites. A part of them didn't and doesn't give a fuck, but some did take offense, especially Tigrays who were at the origins of the whole movement, and to a lesser degree, Oromo. The whole war kinda started to end these elites with their assholish policies.
And we're coming to the part where Abiy has shat himself. Not only he started fighting not just TPLF but all Tigrays (for today in the capital the majority of Tigrays were arrested - just because of their language and ethnicity, kek), but he also started to uproot the civs by terror - there were a lot of rapes and kebabenings of Tigrays. And to tell the truth, there are rumors that a similar shit happened when there were others, smaller actions (could be translated as "rallies"/"protests" - t.n.) against his power.
As a result, from a fucktribution of elites and an assholish party the conflict turned into an ethnic one. Fucking up Abiy has become a question of people's survival for Tigrays. Other pussyboys, not as powerful (as Tigrays - t.n.) were waiting for the outcome, but now have joined the Tigrays, Oromo Liberation Front in particular. For those factions the ethnic balance was upset, there was a lot of discrimination, and the ethnically targeted fucking-up of Tigrays and to a lesser degree other ethnic minorities have become the last fucking straw, and, as their goal, they are seeking to restore the old model of ethnofederation (and no, most likely they are not going to leave Ethiopia, despite their kinda-sorta separatism).
Abit has a vision for the future. But he did shat himself and crossed the red lines, making radical reforms in 2 years after taking power. An ethofederation would be a return to the status-quo, but this status-quo is a shit-show and a road to nowhere. And yet the fact that Abiy was murdering civs can never be justified and he has deserved to be fucked.
In short, Ethiopia is in deep shit. Either the ethnofederation model would win, or a powerful populist leader, which would continue to rein in the country by violence and terror. The local sheeple will suffer anyhow.