kind of overdue isn't it

why somalia gets balkanized if they are all the same

actually somalia doesn't need to balkanzie but to expand, ethiopia did steal lots of somali lands

somalia historically comprised a few different states. puntland was one

but yeah the central government is so dysfunctional that local powers ought to split it up. perhaps if there is still civilisation in 100 years they can reconstitute a somali national state

Somalia Is a failed state somaliland is arguably more of a country

Or it happens like in Afghanistan and Syria and the radical islamists of Al-Shabaab ends up taking the whole country and reuniting Somalia which seems likely at this point. It seems that it is only radical islamisms that can give a stable peace to these countries.

they are not the same, and they have old grudges. Somalia used to brutally bomb Somaliland, and in Africa they haven't heard about geneva conventions, so it was brutal. People still remember it and out of principle don't want to be ruled by Mogadisho, even if there is another new government

Somalia probably exists due to money from UN, African union and they just steal all that money, doing no development of the country. Even Turkey now is buying influence in Somalia. Turkey is buying a lot of influence in Africa, because its so cheap to buy influence there.

Also Jubaland is sending to hell the soldiers from the capital Mogadisho. Suddenly noone respects the so called president of Somalia.

Cheap land and buying influence?

This only ends in one way

Nah somaliland has been dealing kind of successfully with al shabaab for years. At the moment they're more entangled with fighting sub-secessionist clan militias than with islamists.

do you mean the government or the polity? the government exists yeah because of aid but it dovetails with the actual state's reliance on a 'rules based international order' to exist.

its a clearly failed project and as i said it should be allowed to disintegrate over time.

 

forgot to say that these are immensely tribal societies in which islam is often the only unifying factor. syria and afghan suffer from massive diversity but somalia is homogenous above the clan level, so perhaps a working nationalism can be established, but this was derailed by the failed wars to reconquer perceived clay in the last century.